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  • S’pore factory output falls 0.8% in October, snapping year of growth as pharma slumps - planetcirculate

    S’pore factory output falls 0.8% in October, snapping year of growth as pharma slumps


    SINGAPORE – Singapore’s manufacturing output shrank for the first time in a year on a slump in pharmaceuticals production and continued weakness in the linchpin electronics sector.

    Output in October dropped 0.8 per cent year on year, according to data released by the Economic Development Board on Friday. Excluding volatile biomedical manufacturing production, output rose by 1.9 per cent.

    Overall production slightly exceeded the 0.9 per cent contraction forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg poll. The last time factory output shrank was in September 2021, when it fell 2 per cent, likewise due to pharmaceuticals.

    Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye said the broadening manufacturing downturn and contraction in non-oil domestic exports in October may be early warning signs of a potential recession in 2023.

    However, they added: “While manufacturing and trade-related services are expected to decline on weaker global demand, some of the reopening sectors will continue to play catch-up and normalise to pre-pandemic levels… A recession, if it materialises, will likely be shallow because of the reopening tailwinds.”

    RHB senior economist Barnabas Gan expects the slowdown in manufacturing momentum to persist in the first half of 2023.

    “We are most concerned over China’s economic downturn and the adverse spillover effects it may have on global external demand. We are pessimistic on Singapore’s outward-oriented sectors in the next six to eight months, including the electronics and chemicals clusters, given that China is the world’s largest importer of semiconductor chips and petrochemicals,” he said.

    But he added that the pickup in travel will boost the transport engineering industry’s aerospace segment and the food and beverage manufacturing cluster, while biomedical manufacturing may recover due to low-base effects.

    The electronics sector saw output drop 0.7 per cent in October, smaller than the 5.7 per cent decline in September and the 6.9 per cent fall in August.

    The industry, which is key to Singapore’s economic growth as it accounts for 40 per cent of the export-driven manufacturing sector, is facing a slump in global demand amid macroeconomic headwinds.

    Singapore’s semiconductor output, which accounts for 80 per cent of electronics manufacturing, grew 1.2 per cent in October, reversing a 7.7 per cent decline in September. Singapore supplies 11 per cent of the world’s semiconductors and 20 per cent of chipmaking equipment.

    Output for the other electronic modules and components segment tumbled 23.2 per cent, while computer peripherals and data storage fell 12.7 per cent. But the infocomms and consumer electronics segment expanded by 4.1 per cent.

    Biomedical manufacturing output also dropped, falling by 14.5 per cent in October. It was dragged down by the pharmaceuticals segment, which shrunk 27.1 per cent due to a different mix of active ingredients being produced.

    This came even as the medical technology segment expanded 4.2 per cent, with higher export demand for medical devices.

    Chemicals output also declined in October, falling 9.7 per cent. The petroleum segment grew 14.6 per cent due to higher demand for jet fuel as global air travel restrictions eased. But the sector was weighed down by the petrochemicals segment, which slid 12 per cent due to weak market demand and plant maintenance shutdowns.

    Likewise, the specialities segment fell 12.2 per cent due to lower production of mineral oil and food additives, while the other chemicals segment dropped 17 per cent as fewer fragrances were made.

    Precision engineering was a bright spot, with output jumping 18.6 per cent, buoyed by a 24.7 per cent expansion in machinery and systems production due to higher output of semiconductor foundry equipment. The precision modules and components segment also grew – by 5.5 per cent – on the back of higher production of optical products.

    The transport engineering industry saw growth of 6.3 per cent in October, cooling from the 38.8 per cent expansion in September. Its aerospace segment expanded 19.7 per cent, supported by higher demand for aircraft parts from the United States, and more maintenance, repair and overhaul jobs from commercial airlines.

    However, marine and offshore engineering output dipped 3.2 per cent and the land segment shrunk 11.8 per cent.

    General manufacturing output was unchanged year on year, with the food, beverage, tobacco and printing segments recording an increase in output. However, the miscellaneous industries segment declined 11.5 per cent due to lower production of batteries and structural metal products.



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