Trump Leads Potential Opponents in Hypothetical 2024 Primary

Former President Donald J. Trump leads his potential opponents by double-digits in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary survey, but a head-to-head match-up with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) shows a tighter race.

In the Echelon Insights omnibus survey conducted from December 12-14, 41 percent of the 397 likely voter respondents who either are Republican or vote for GOP candidates more frequently than Democrat candidates say they would back Trump. DeSantis is the 45th president’s closest competitor, drawing 32 percent of the response.

Former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are tied in third place with four percent, followed by Sen. Ted Crux (R-TX) and Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) at two percent. No other politician received more than one percent of the participants’ support.

Echelon Insights also asked voters who they would prefer in a head-to-head match-up between Trump and DeSantis, showing an extremely close race. In that scenario, 47 percent of respondents support Trump, including 35 percent saying they will “definitely” vote for the former president and 12 percent saying they “probably” would. DeSantis draws 46 percent of the vote, made up of 29 percent who would “definitely” vote for him and 17 percent who “probably” would.

Of the 538 respondents who are Democrats or vote tend to vote for liberal candidates, 55 percent would either “definitely” or “probably” support President Joe Biden in a reelection bid, while 38 percent would back another candidate. In a scenario where Biden, whose approval registers at 43 percent, does not run, Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the favorite with 26 percent of support, followed by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 12 percent and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) at six percent. Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Liz Warren (D-MA), as well as Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), all sit at five percent.

In a hypothetical general election with Trump and Biden as the two major candidates, the sitting president leads 46 percent to 44 percent. Of the total 1,021 likely voter respondents surveyed, 30 percent say they would certainly vote for Trump, while 14 percent say they would likely cast a vote for him. Another 36 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Biden. Ten percent of respondents would “probably” vote for the 80-year-old Democrat, and another ten percent are undecided.

A DeSantis versus Biden match-up is slightly closer, with both candidates tied at 44 percent. Of respondents, 32 percent say they would absolutely back DeSantis, while 12 percent said he would most likely earn their votes. Voters who say they would definitely vote for Biden in such a scenario comprised 31 percent of respondents, and 12 percent say he would like to get their vote. Another 13 percent would be undecided.

Echelon Insights sampled a total of 1,021 likely voters between December 12-14. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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